Wednesday, October 9, 2019

September Earnings



I went into semi retirement in September when I left my job. Luckily, I still have money coming in, so I am not in a hurry to look for another job. In fact, I don't really need to work, but there is still something inside me to continue.

Anyway, here is a summary my dividend / interest income for September.

Saturday, October 5, 2019

The recession is coming....


Now that I am in a semi retirement mode, I have more time to read and watch the news. Almost every other day, I read about the recession like a gathering storm. The news reporters/financial analysts show an economic indicator, and then talk about the market crashing. Obviously, this is an attempt to get more viewers and hits. Of course, I like to double check their facts.


Inverted Yield Curve

This indicator is simply based on the 2Yr Yield - 10 Yr Yield. Over the last few recession, it has predicted the upcoming recession. Note that there was a false alarm in 1998.
This indicator has been blasted in the news channel recently especially with a recent inversion a month ago.



Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Creating a screen using the CCC list

Another post!

When you are starting out, it's not always easy to screen for dividend stocks. There are so many companies to choose from. I've tried to summarize my methodology to screen out dividend companies for further research.

1) Use the CCC List (https://bit.ly/HistoricDividendChampions)

This list was originally maintained by David Fish, but after his passing, Justin Law took over. He is doing a wonderful job maintaining a list of companies that raise their dividends year over year.

2) Use the ALL CCC tab and then pick your criteria.


3) Then, you just use the EXCEL filter criteria to filter down the number of companies.

In this example, I used the following:

  • Dividend Growth Years > 15
  • Payout Ratio < 60
  • ROE > 20
  • P/E < 20


You can choose your own set of criteria.

This creates a shorter list.

AFLAC Inc. AFL
Albemarle Corp. ALB
Air Products & Chem. APD
BancFirst Corp. OK BANF
Best Buy Corp. BBY
Cardinal Health Inc. CAH
Caterpillar Inc. CAT
Cullen/Frost Bankers CFR
C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW
Canadian National Railway CNI
Dover Corp. DOV
First of Long Island Corp. FLIC
General Dynamics GD
Genuine Parts Co. GPC
W.W. Grainger Inc. GWW
International Business Machines IBM
Illinois Tool Works ITW
John Wiley & Sons Inc. JW-A
Lincoln Electric Holdings LECO
Lockheed Martin LMT
McGrath Rentcorp MGRC
MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. MSM
Bank OZK OZK
PepsiCo Inc. PEP
Parker-Hannifin Corp. PH
Polaris Industries PII
Republic Bancorp KY RBCAA
Robert Half International Inc. RHI
Sonoco Products Co. SON
1st Source Corp. SRCE
Sempra Energy SRE
Target Corp. TGT
Tiffany & Company TIF
T. Rowe Price Group TROW
VF Corp. VFC
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. WBA

4) Next, I copy this to my GOOGLE SHEETS where I can use the PAAY (Percent over Average Yield) which is an indicator from a guy called Part Time Investor on Seeking Alpha. Basically, it is an indication if a company's yield is below it's average. In my mind, it is a quick and dirty way to test for Yield Theory.

In GOOGLE SHEETS, you can use the following:

=index(importhtml("http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s="&B1, "table",4),2,2)/index(importhtml("http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s="&B1, "table",4),5,2)*100

B1 in this case is ticker symbol reference. I am using the 5 year average yield.

This filters the companies further. I just used a filter of >1.0 over average. Of course, you can raise this accordingly.


Albemarle Corp.ALB1.3478260871
BancFirst Corp. OKBANF1.1693121691
Best Buy Corp.BBY1.1836734691
Cardinal Health Inc.CAH1.5465116281
Caterpillar Inc.CAT1.019801981
Cullen/Frost BankersCFR1.1345454551
C.H. Robinson WorldwideCHRW1.0540540541
Canadian National RailwayCNI1.1329113921
First of Long Island Corp.FLIC1.13281251
General DynamicsGD1.1576086961
Genuine Parts Co.GPC1.1268115941
International Business MachinesIBM1.2357723581
Illinois Tool WorksITW1.2952380951
John Wiley & Sons Inc.JW-A1.2807017541
Lincoln Electric HoldingsLECO1.1853932581
MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc.MSM1.7899159661
Bank OZKOZK1.8588235291
PepsiCo Inc.PEP1.0071174381
Parker-Hannifin Corp.PH1.0648648651
Polaris IndustriesPII1.2117117121
Robert Half International Inc.RHI1.2685714291
1st Source Corp.SRCE1.1794871791
Tiffany & CompanyTIF1.2139303481
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.WBA1.6213592231


Now, I have a list of companies that I can research and read up. (NOTE: Not final BUY LIST)

Anyway, this month, I added a position on ITW, Based on my other tools, it is mostly in the average range in terms of valuation. However, I am okay to let this one sit in my portfolio for years to come, and collect the ~2.8% yield. Also, I bought JW-A just last month.

This seems a lot of work, but it's really not that difficult. If you don't want to do this, just go with an index fund/ETF. (VFINX/VOO). Just invest regularly to avoid timing the market.

Have FUN!

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Update

It has been 3 years since my last update.  I had decided to scale down on blogging and focused on generating additional income. The goal was to increase future passive income and reach financial independence.

After 3 years, my yearly passive income covers most of my expenses. 

Passive Income Breakdown:

Post Tax:
CDs & Others = $17.7k
Investing Account = $6.5k
Others = $2k

Pre Tax:
401k (1) = $15.5k
401k (2) = $6k
Rollover (1) = $3.5k
Rollover (2) = $1.5k

Basically, more than $50k passive income.

Now, I am at a crossroad. I can either go full blown FIRE or continue work. If I do work, it will definitely be on jobs that I want to do. I also notice that with FIRE, my strategy going forward must change. Now, I need to look into Safe Withdrawal rates and the import of Sequential Risk. 

While I think dividend growth investing is a pretty good strategy, I also realize that index investing can also work quite well. DGI works really well if you reinvest your dividends, but if you start using the dividends for your daily expenses, then the growth will be simply based on dividend growth and capital gain. Also, my experiment with a market wide index showed that my index fund had similar gain and sometimes outperformed my basket of DGI stocks. 

There are additional strategies such as leveraging/rebalancing taxable income so that you qualify for the subsidies of the Affordable Health Act. Moreover, to access pre-tax investments, there are tricks using Roth Conversion ladders since I have many years until 59 1/2, and my pre-tax pool is quite large.

Anyway, I'm done for today. Maybe a few more years until my next update!

Also, I fixed my spreadsheet tool.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eIkxYAsQPJkWZmP-9bYKcsGnSLTzvFx8hUe4YvGJLS0/edit?usp=sharing




Sunday, September 4, 2016

Recent Purchase - FLO



When the market is trading near its all-time high, it’s difficult to find good deals. Companies that are beaten up are normally where they should be. With the string of bad earnings results and the lawsuit from their truck drivers, Flower Foods (FLO) is certainly beaten up. However, I decided to initiate a new position with FLO. I see some potential in terms of dividend growth, FCF and yield. It's relative risk grade is right at 1.7 - which is below my 2.0 threshold.


Details of my Transaction


Action
Security
Price
Quantity
Amount
Buy
FLO
$15.1
99
1495+fees


Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Recent Purchase - VFC


I recently posted my August considerations for DGI investments. Well, I didn’t wait too long. Nope, not AMGN, ABBV nor GILD. Still waiting for these to drop a little more :)

Today, I bought 26 shares of VFC. This time, I bought it in my taxable sharebuilder’s account. (It’s definitely good to be able to buy using both accounts.)

Action
Security
Price
Quantity
Amount
Buy
VFC
$59.8
26
$1562 (+fees)

The dividends per share is $1.48 which is around 2.47% yield. This purchase increases my forward yearly dividends by $38.48.

Nothing much changed about VFC since the last time I bought it in April. You can read more of my analysis of the VFC, valuation and risks here: https://div4son.blogspot.com.co/2016/04/recent-buys-tax-deferred-vfc.html

My strategy when I first bought VFC is to average down when the price dips. I think this is likely in this heated market.

My next purchase point will be when VFC hits the mid 50s.

What do you think of VFC?

D4s

Monday, August 1, 2016

August Considerations

Below are 3 companies with my criteria checklist that I am considering for August. Actually, I wanted to buy a couple of them in July, but the prices crept slightly over my buy zone. If there is a pullback, I will definitely consider adding them to my portfolio in small chunks.


Amgen is a biotechnology company that engages in developing, manufacturing and delivering human therapeutics for the treatment of illness in the areas of oncology/hematology, cardiovascular, inflammation, nephrology, and neuroscience.

Saturday, July 30, 2016

July Summary



The first month of the quarter is usually a quiet month for me in terms of dividend income. July is following the same trend. I can’t complain though. The cash is coming in with no efforts from my part.


The market continues to be hot. Again, it has been difficult to find companies trading at fair value or below. I still try to invest though.


Anyway, here’s a summary of the articles I’ve written this month.


Okay - let’s go to the good stuff….


Taxable Account


In my sharebuilder taxable account, I only managed a couple of trades this month. It’s not good, but the market is not cooperating.

Date
Security ID
Quantity
Price
Net Amount
7/21/2016
TIF
62.099
27
1683.62
7/28/2016
DIS
96.049
15
1447.69



Total
3131.31